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Just about everyone loves the NFL draft. Teams love
adding new players to their rosters. Television networks
love the spectacle. The media gets something to talk
about for six weeks after free agency. Fans love
speculating about who they'll end up with or the dramatic
moves their team might make on draft day. In a league
built around the idea of parity, the draft gives hope to
previously hopeless organizations.To get more news about
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There's one important group of people who might not love
the draft as much as they should: the players. On one
hand, they are happy to enter the NFL. More than 250
prospects had their childhood dreams come true in the
2021 class, and that has to be a great feeling. That's
always going to be a special moment.
In terms of agency, though, players entering the NFL join
the league at a major disadvantage. The draft doesn't
allow them to choose where they're selected, which can
drastically impact their future careers. Quarterback Josh
Rosen comes to mind as the most extreme example of what
can go wrong if a prospect lands in the worst possible
spot for his career, but they have to make smaller
sacrifices.
Guys who have spent their whole life in warm weather
might suddenly end up being forced to play in frigid
conditions. Those who excelled in one scheme in college
might have to play in a totally different scheme at the
professional level which doesn't use their strengths.
Maybe a prospect gets drafted behind Aaron Donald or
Russell Wilson and doesn't end up getting the reps he
needs over his first few seasons. Some guys are good
enough to succeed regardless of where they end up, but
they're the exceptions, not the rules.
More recently, players entering the league have had to
deal with another hindrance: they're making a fraction of
their actual value on the open market. After players at
the top of the draft began to enter the league as some of
the league's highest-paid players at their positions, the
NFL course-corrected by agreeing a rookie scale with the
NFLPA as part of the 2011 collective bargaining agreement
(CBA). The scale predetermines how much players will be
paid in each draft slot. While it has eliminated rookie
holdouts, some of the country's most promising prospects
end up making a fraction of their true value.
Take quarterbacks at the top of the class. In 2009, No. 1
overall pick Matthew Stafford signed a six-year, $72
million deal with the Lions, which guaranteed the Georgia
star $41.7 million at signing. If you adjust that deal
for inflation in terms of the 2020 cap, his deal would
look like a six-year, $111.5 million deal with $64.5
million guaranteed at signing.
Contrast that to the top of the actual 2020 draft. Joe
Burrow signed a four-year, $36.1 million deal with the
Bengals, all of which was fully guaranteed, plus a fifth-
year option. Everyone naturally hopes Burrow will recover
in full from his serious knee injury and make significant
money for years to come, but if he's not the same
quarterback that we saw at LSU, the difference in what
Burrow would have made under the old CBA and the current
CBA is drastic.
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